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Research & Market Analysis
Published analysis, market commentary, and strategy context.
Mar 2026
The Iran Premium: How Hormuz Risk Is Reshaping Portfolio Construction
The Strait of Hormuz remains a convex tail risk for energy and freight. We outline how we're tilting exposure away from pure beta and into structured hedges and precious metals, while keeping FX books tactical and liquidity-aware.
Geopolitical Risk
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Feb 2026
Gold at $5,500: Structural Bid or Blow-Off Top? Our Framework for Precious Metals in 2026
With spot near historic highs, we separate structural central-bank demand from late-cycle speculation. Our framework ties allocation to real rates, positioning skew, and drawdown tolerance rather than headline narratives alone.
Commodities
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Jan 2026
Why We're Underweight European Indices Despite ECB Easing
ECB easing has not resolved growth dispersion or energy vulnerability. We explain why index-level Europe exposure stays tactically light until earnings breadth confirms a durable floor and geopolitical premia mean-revert.
Macro
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Dec 2025
2025 in Review: 72.4% Net Return, 70% Win Rate, and What We Learned
A year of elevated volatility delivered a 72.4% net return and a 70% win rate across verified trades. We distill what worked, what failed, and how risk protocols evolved month by month without overfitting to a single regime.
Performance
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Nov 2025
Position Sizing Under Stress: How Our Drawdown Protocol Preserved Capital in October
October's gap-driven shocks tested correlation assumptions. We walk through the drawdown protocol that scaled risk down before losses compounded, and why capital preservation trumped reopening early into unresolved volatility.
Risk Management
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